THURSDAY,  NOVEMBER 27,  2008

A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT ET, BUT STILL THURSDAY IN MOST OF THE U.S.  A FURTHER UPDATE FROM RENEE NIELSEN IN MUMBAI.  FROM WHAT I CAN OBSERVE, THIS IS THE MOST COVERED TERRORIST ATTACK SINCE THE ATTACKS OF 9-11 IN THE U.S., LARGELY BECAUSE THE TERROR IS ONGOING. 

RENEE'S DISPATCH:

Not much new to report on this.  The newest (and what appears to be most sophisticated) set of commandos has entered the Taj and the Trident-Oberoi hotels and the Nariman house. We've been on "final assault" for over 24 hours now and while we're trying not to judge the abilities of the authorities/army on their handling of this crisis, it's hard not to.  Put it this way, between early lack of crowd control, stolen police cars, and three very senior/top cops being killed in gunbattles within the first couple hours of this tragedy, you have to wonder what the thought process was behind some of the first critical and crucial decisions.  

Schools are still closed across the city, but my husband has returned to work.  The entire situation is contained in the most southern parts of the city.

The BJP and Congress parties are now trying to show some sort of solidarity during this difficult time, but the talking heads on television are still doing what they do--criticizing everything done so far.

It's just a waiting game now.  The commandos are doing "top down" sweeps which the media is explaining it as simultaneous sweeps of these buildings, starting at the top and bottom to meet in the middle somewhere.  Who knows.

Will come back with more information as it comes along. BBC World and CNN Int'l have broken off continuous coverage because it's a holding pattern right now, but they are giving the least hysterical analysis.  One can really see the different levels of professionalism.  One sad note:  BBC World reported on the death of one gentleman who had called into them to give a first hand account of his experiences has been killed.  The Daily Mail has the information here.

Later update from Renee: 

Hostages released from the Trident.  It's a mix of white westerners and Indian (but could be Brit nationals) to include what looks to be a 6-8month old baby.

They look shocked and traumatized, but no one is crying.  Of course, cameras are all over them.

The authorities saying 1 terrorist in the Heritage Taj (the old part) and they found the body of another.

 

ANOTHER NOTE FROM RENEE NIELSEN, MUMBAI - 11:36 A.M. ET: 

One more thing:  There are national elections here in January.  The BJP party is expected to win over the current Congress party/PM Manmohan Singh.  If that happens, the new PM would probably be LK Advani.  Advani has been on television talking about lack of security for the country etc,.  

Now, other commentators are on blaming gov't for all this happening and outraged that India isn't prepared for crisis situations like this with police/army and even infrastructurally.  

It's gone political now.

MORE FROM RENEE - 11:32 A.M. ET:  Here is more, from Renee Nielsen Mumbai:

Latest:

The family of the GM for the Taj is among the 101 killed: wife and 3 kids.   How tragic.

The terrorists threw a grenade from the Taj trying to hit the fire engine which was trying to put out the fire still raging there.  This is a major landmark of the city.  It's a humongous hotel, but it's the only tourist place here we made a point of seeing so far: Gateway of India/Taj Hotel.
 
There is a huge fire at the Trident Oberoi.  They've gotten 60 people out.  They are saying "60 hostages released", but I don't think that may be the case--60 people who were trapped and waiting perhaps.  Everyone is too calm coming out to be hostages.  

Just for a idea of where we are, Bandra is probably 15km from where the action is in the south, but in normal traffic, put that at 1-1.5hrs drive time.  All the activity that was reported in Vile Parle, Juhu, Santa Cruz from last night has not gotten a single mention today for whatever reason.  We find that odd, but guess it means they got the terrorists up there.

Renee

FROM MUMBAI - DIRECT

Posted at 9:11 a.m. ET

We now have, just in from Mumbai, a letter from Renee Nielsen, a terrific woman who is president of Republicans Abroad in India.  Urgent Agenda thanks reader Hunter Schultz, in Panama, who made possible this link with Renee.  She writes:

Well, things are still tense here as the hostage situation has not been resolved. There are many news agencies here reporting in both English and Hindi on top of CNN Int'l and BBC World so lots of confusion on truth.

What we do know is that as of now, 6 foreigners reported killed with 5 identified.  Earlier it was said 2 of the dead were US Intel officers.  The British High Commissioner has arrived from Delhi and said that 7 Brit nationals were in hospital from wounds, but no idea how many were/are involved whether killed or hostage or hiding/trapped in the hotels.

The terrorists came in directly from Pakistan and entered Mumbai via small boat down by the Gateway of India (across from the Taj).  The Indian navy and air forces are now searching for the mother ship which they did have named earlier.

The army has taken over from the police with the navy commandos in the lead at the hotels.  The news (Times Now) reporting they are preparing for last assault, but you can see lights coming on in Trident Oberoi hotel that were on before and curtains being opened. I would think this is a sign of a cleared room, but who knows.  Also, lots of reports of explosions but could be used to open doors as not necessarily being followed up by shots.  The terrorists supposedly have grenades on them. They have captured one terrorist there named Abu Ismail from Kandirot, Pakistan.

Another fire has started at the Taj hotel on the opposite side from last night and on the 4th floor.  The Taj group has vowed already to rebuild good as new, but this is a 100 year old landmark hotel.  

The English cricket team has canceled some test match.  Why is that important?  Because cricket is HUGE here (national sport) and is a major force in the economy.  Aussie and Brit cricketers already don't want to go to Pakistan and the Indian cricket league officials fear the same will happen to India.  Big loss of revenue.

The Taj has conflicting reports of hostages still trapped - or - regular guests.

It is now been confirmed that US and British citizens were targeted. Too many witnesses have confirmed that.

101 dead and 300 injured. The dead include the top including 3 very senior/top people--one being the head of the ATS (Anti-terror squad).

Things are changing minute by minute, but since the army/cops have been clearing hotel rooms all day, would expect this to get resolved by tonight sometime.  The sun has now set and it's getting dark.

It is 6:10pm.  We are 11.5hrs ahead of CTD.

We've been home all day.  There were reports the terrorists had stolen police vehicles (we could see that on the tv) and were shooting out the windows indiscriminately.  Nothing like that has been reported for at least 10 hours.  The Taj Lands End in Bandra (where we live) is just 1.5miles from here.  I would bet it's like a fortress now.  It's not just tourists that use the hotels here.  Expats frequent them on an everyday basis because the restaurants are great (and clean/safe to eat in).  You will also expect to see lots of businessmen/women and very wealthy tourists.  These are 5 star hotels.  The terrorists apparently opened fire in the lobbies.  My son has a classmate (5 yrs old) who is hosting her birthday party at the Taj Land's End on Saturday and my husband has a haircut appointment there.  What may seem odd to Americans to use these hotels for regular stomping grounds is normal for the huge expat community here.

Let me know if you want me to write more.  The Indian media is hysterical at times, kinda like how Geraldo and Shep Smith acted during Hurricane Katrina, so it's hard to filter some of the sensationalism out.  In fact, one channel (Headline News) is saying that the killed police have been "martyred."  That's a strong word.  India and Pakistan right now are sharing the best relations they've had in 40 years.  This is not a govt vs govt action, but of course there will be consequences.  I'll do my best to get the truth versus rumor.

Apologies for grammar errors.  Happy Thanksgiving.  We'll never forget this one.

Sincerely,

Renee Nielsen
Chairman
Republicans Abroad India

We have asked Renee to supply more information as it becomes available.  As you can see from her letter, private sources often provide little tidbits that we don't get from regular news reporting.

Stand by.      

November 27, 2008.        Permalink          

INDIA - 8:40 A.M. ET:  We are trying to get some information from an independent source in Mumbai, India.  Until we do there is little we can add to the news reporting you've seen, much of it very well done.  The terror attack in Mumbai is another reminder that there's a real world out there, and that the return to what some are calling "the December 10th mentality" - the American thinking that existed before we were attacked - is dangerous and unacceptable.  We hope the new president is noticing. 

STILL IN THE TANK - 8:17 A.M. ET:  The headline over the AP story in The New York Times reads:  Obama Reassures Nervous Nation on Ailing Economy.  But the story begins:  President-elect Barack Obama sought to reassure the nation and nervous holiday shoppers about the ailing economy Wednesday as beleaguered stores braced for their most important month of the year.

COMMENT:  When I was in journalism, reassuring a nation and seeking to reassure a nation were two different things.  But when you're in the tank for Obama, and there's no real editing, the above contradiction is what happens. 

WE DON'T GIVE THANKS FOR THIS - 8:01 A.M. ET:  United Nations nuclear watchdog governors on Wednesday approved a disputed Syrian bid for atomic aid after being assured it would be kept under scrutiny while Damascus is being investigated for alleged covert nuclear activity.  Diplomats said the United States, Canada and Australia, part of a Western drive to block the project, made last-minute objections but finally joined a consensus in favour since they could not have won if they forced a rare vote in the 35-nation body.

COMMENT:  Another reward for bad behavior.  Are there any incentives at the UN for good behavior?

ADMISSION OF GUILT - 7:47 A.M. ET:  Several readers wrote to point out that I prematurely buried the stock-market rally early yesterday.  Guilty as charged.  I should have acknowledged the solid gain by the Dow, but became distracted as I monitored the situation in India.  I've often said that I wished I had an editor, but our readers are the best editors of all.

PUBLISHING TODAY?  SURE - 7:45 A.M. ET:  Urgent Agenda publishes every day.  We will do some blogging this morning, then take time out for a Thanksgiving celebration, and then, we trust, add some material after that. 

WEDNESDAY,  NOVEMBER 26,  2008

ANOTHER DEM COMEDIAN, EQUALLY UNFUNNY - 3:11 P.M. ET:  With comedian Al Franken contesting for the Minnesota U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Norm Coleman, why not bring in other clowns?  The Democrats have their eye on Republican Arlen Specter's Senate seat, up in 2010.  The Los Angeles Times reports that another entertainer and would-be "journalist" is interested:

Leading the pack of prospects -- at least in celebrity -- is Chris Matthews, the MSNBC "Hardball" host and a former Capitol Hill Democratic staffer. The Philadelphia native has been toying with a run for months, and this week he sat down with state Democrats to discuss the prospect of taking on the five-term GOP senator.

He would certainly be the Senate's leading blowhard.  But I really doubt that senators, Democratic or Republican, want to start each session with someone shouting, "Let's play hardball!" 

Embarrassing.

A FUNNY THING HAPPENED TO HER ON THE WAY TO - 2:58 P.M. ET:  There'a a fascinating discussion underway on whether Hillary Clinton is Constitutionally qualified to be secretary of state.  The Marc Ambinder blog at The Atlantic explains:

Pete Williams of NBC raised the question on MSNBC this afternoon: Is Hillary Clinton barred by the Constitution from accepting the post of secretary of state?

Article One, Section Six of the U.S. Constitution says:

     "No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he    was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office."

Essentially, you cannot take a job if the salary was increased during your current congressional term. And the salary for cabinet officials has gone up in the past year. Even if it is lowered back down, constitutional scholars say that may not be enough to fix the problem.

The question is whether this would be an issue at confirmation - if Clinton is nominated to the post - and who would raise it. Senators traditionally grant their colleagues some deference and it could be considered politics at its worst if Republicans try to block her nomination with this argument. But senators may be loathe to vote for something scholars tell them is unconstitutional.

That being said, this development may make Obama, or Clinton, think twice about the appointment.

-Matthew Berger

If senators don't challenge her qualifications, I wonder who can.  Does an ordinary citizen have standing?  A group of Foreign Service officers? 

I'm just guessing that, if Hillary Clinton accepts the position and takes the salary paid before she became a citizen, the issue would kind of go away.  Or, with Bill's income being what it is, she could take no salary at all. 

Interesting Constitutional question.  I'm not qualified to comment beyond speculation.

November 26, 2008.

DOW NO WOW - 1:39 P.M. ET:  The Dow is up only 40, essentially flat, the euphoria of early in the week gone.

NUMBERS

Posted at 8:38 a.m. ET

We get some of our best information here at Urgent Agenda from informed readers. Reader Ray Cleveland alerts us to a remarkable set of statistics comparing the federal payouts being made to deal with today's financial crisis with payouts made in the past.  Consider:

If we add in the Citi bailout, the total cost now exceeds $4.6165 trillion dollars. People have a hard time conceptualizing very large numbers, so let's give this some context. The current credit crisis bailout is now the largest outlay In American history.

Bianco Research crunched the inflation adjusted numbers. The bailout has cost more than all of these big budget government expenditures – combined:

• Marshall Plan: Cost: $12.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $115.3 billion
• Louisiana Purchase: Cost: $15 million, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $217 billion
• Race to the Moon: Cost: $36.4 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $237 billion
• S&L Crisis: Cost: $153 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $256 billion
• Korean War: Cost: $54 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $454 billion
• The New Deal: Cost: $32 billion (Est), Inflation Adjusted Cost: $500 billion (Est)
• Invasion of Iraq: Cost: $551b, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $597 billion
• Vietnam War: Cost: $111 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $698 billion
• NASA: Cost: $416.7 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $851.2 billion

TOTAL: $3.92 trillion

That is $686 billion less than the cost of the credit crisis thus far.

The only single American event in history that even comes close to matching the cost of the credit crisis is World War II.  Original Cost: $288 billion, Inflation Adjusted Cost: $3.6 trillion.

The $4.6165 trillion dollars committed so far is about a trillion dollars ($979 billion dollars) greater than the entire cost of World War II borne by the United States: $3.6 trillion, adjusted for inflation (original cost was $288 billion).

Bianco Research, which crunched the numbers, is often quoted in financial news stories.

Ray Cleveland goes on to note a Bloomberg report that the total bailout this time represents $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the United States. 

It seems to me that Americans, including many journalists, still don't understand the enormity of the federal bailouts and the implications for our economic system.  The federal government now has equity stakes in major American banks and corporations.  True, it can get some or all of the money back in the future, as the economy grows once more - if it grows.  There are no guarantees. 

And we are far from out of the woods.

November 26, 2008.      Permalink          

TIME TO GO

Posted at 7:42 a.m. ET

The British might describe it as "extraorinary."  We Americans, preparing for the holidays and thinking Turkey rather than Syria, might not notice.  But the world's chief nuclear inspector and desk warmer has gone way over the top in some of his public comments, proving once again that he's inadequate for his job and should be eased out.  Fat chance.  He's an "international civil servant," after all, and no level of derangement is considered too high for continued employment.

Now Mr. Mohamed ElBaradei lectures us as he defends his offer to help Syria, believe it or not, with a nuclear program.  This is really fantasyland.

The chief UN nuclear inspector has urged caution against prematurely judging Syria's atomic program by reminding diplomats about false US claims that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, comments released Tuesday show.

The bluntness of remarks by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, reflected tensions over whether Syria should be given potentially sensitive nuclear guidance at a time it is being investigated for alleged secret atomic activities.

Yeah, I'd say there are tensions.  And remember - while we didn't find stockpiles of WMD in Iraq, we found the programs, ready to be restarted once the UN lifted sanctions on Saddam Hussein.  That's the part of the WMD story the mainstream media never details.

"There are claims against Iraq, which proved to be bonkers, but only after a terrible war," ElBaradei said after the US and its allies questioned Syria's right to his agency's help in planning a power-producing atomic reactor.

Bonkers?  Every major intelligence organization in the world agreed with our assessment.  And, again, the programs were found.  ElBaradei is Egyptian, and again seems to side with Arab countries, as he has before.  Even the thought of giving nuclear aid to Syria strikes most Western governments as, well, bonkers.

"There is one thing called investigation, another called clear-cut proof of innocence or guilt ... and all of you, even if you are not lawyers, know that people and countries are innocent until proven guilty," he said.

We're talking Syria here, buddy, one of the most irresponsible countries in the region.  Reasonable people err on the side of caution. 

A report circulated last week by ElBaradei confirmed that soil samples taken at the site of a building in Syria bombed last year by Israel revealed "a significant number" of uranium particles.

The report also said that satellite imagery and other information appeared to bear out US intelligence that the building was a nuclear reactor - one Washington said was nearly completed and almost ready to produce plutonium, a fissile warhead component.

Yeah, yeah.  Mohamed, are you reading your own reports, bro?  Maybe you can get the cassette version and listen in your car. 

Beyond helping the Syrians develop expertise, the $350,000 aid project would send the wrong signal about a country under investigation by the IAEA, critics like the Americans argued.

In Washington, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said it was "totally inappropriate, we believe, given the fact that Syria is under investigation by the IAEA for building a nuclear reactor outside the bounds of its international legal commitments."

The US also used the Vienna meeting to express its opposition and received backing from the European Union, France, Britain, Australia and Canada.

We even have France with us.  That says something. 

Commenting on ElBaradei's scrappy stance, a senior diplomat with good connections to IAEA staff said the agency chief personally sent text messages to key aides telling them to stand tough on the Syria issue.

And we should stand tough on him.  It's time for him to go.  He's biased and ineffective, and his position on Syria proves it.  Nuclear proliferation is too serious to be left to a party-line hack.

November 26, 2008.      Permalink